Modelling the impacts of climate change on geotechnical companies-Paper

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The paper uses Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD)-aligned scenario analysis to assess how climate change could affect geotechnical companies. It combines IPCC climate scenarios for physical risks with International Energy Agency scenarios for transition risks, using company project, equipment and materials data.<br /><br />For North American operations, the analysis models extreme heat, precipitation, wildfires and smoke, and hurricanes. Delays—not equipment damage—are the main cost, reducing project capacity and potentially causing contractual or future-work losses. Extreme heat is the largest operational risk, followed by wildfires and precipitation. Florida is particularly exposed, with Texas and Georgia also facing substantial delays. By 2050, the high-emissions scenario produces 1.2 times as many delay days as the moderate scenario.<br /><br />In Europe, the transition analysis examines restrictions on diesel-powered equipment and carbon costs for cement and steel. The models generally indicate limited risk of rigs becoming stranded, although faster local regulation could require early retirement. Companies may need to buy electric or hydrogen-powered equipment sooner than expected. Carbon taxes and rising demand for lower-carbon materials could increase costs, especially for solutions with high cement or steel use.<br /><br />The authors recommend tracking climate impacts and integrating them into risk assessments, contracts, procurement and long-term strategy. Measures include planning for weather-related delays, using contract provisions to allocate costs, strengthening supply-chain partnerships, reducing reliance on high-carbon materials, improving equipment efficiency, considering lower-carbon fuels, and investing in alternative machinery. The paper stresses that preparation should begin now: climate risks will evolve over time, and early action may be more practical and cost-effective than responding after impacts occur.

Keywords

TCFD

climate scenario analysis

geotechnical companies

physical climate risks

transition risks

extreme heat

wildfires

carbon costs

diesel equipment restrictions

supply chain resilience