Predictive Analytics Application in Developing Regional Suitability Mapping (RSM)-Paper

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The paper presents a predictive analytics method for mapping punch-through risk during jack-up emplacement in Malaysian waters. Building on the Regional Suitability Mapping (RSM) program, the approach estimates risk at locations without boreholes, supporting safer rig placement and more efficient site investigations.<br /><br />The pilot study assessed a Keppel FELS B Class jack-up at 100 borehole locations across approximately 11,000 km², focusing on strong clay overlying weak clay. Monte Carlo simulations incorporated uncertainty in soil strength, layer depths, spudcan geometry, measurements, and the bearing-capacity model. For each borehole, the estimated ultimate bearing capacity was compared with the rig’s lightship weight and maximum preload to calculate punch-through probability. The probabilities were converted to reliability indices, then interpolated across the study area using ordinary kriging. The resulting maps show predicted probabilities and associated standard errors; a rational quadratic semivariogram model best fit the pilot data.<br /><br />Punch-through potential was identified at 86 of the 100 boreholes. Results were generally concentrated at either below 10% or above 90% probability, and locations exceeding 50% probability were also identified as having punch-through potential in their geotechnical reports. Some discrepancies were linked to differences in rig or preload assumptions and uncertainty in soil-strength estimates.<br /><br />The method provides a quantitative, spatial view of punch-through risk and its uncertainty, extending earlier heuristic RSM maps. The authors emphasize that predictions depend on the quality and distribution of borehole data, and that further validation is needed. Recording actual emplacement and punch-through events will help calibrate and improve future maps.

Keywords

predictive analytics

punch-through risk

jack-up emplacement

Regional Suitability Mapping

Monte Carlo simulation

bearing capacity

ordinary kriging

reliability index

geotechnical investigation

Malaysian waters